October 05, 2021 at 2:08pm | Jonathan Crompton

I feel like I blink my eye and we are in a new month! That being said I have throughly enjoyed the weather we have experienced the past month and looking forward to the coming months as September/November are my favorite weather months of the year. Humidity is mostly gone, its still in the 70s and the beach is less crowded than the summer months! Couple that with my girls absolute enjoyment of Halloween you cannot go wrong!

The curious question is, what will transpire in our real estate market. Well, I always like to attempt to forecast what to expect from the numbers and data we are able to gather on a month to month basis.

Well we were pretty flat in terms of Contracts Written since June. Now that being said each month during that period were record months from prior years, aside from post shut down last year(that had a ton of pent up demand). I am curious to wonder is it flat due to the fact that inventory is still sitting a month of inventory, meaning more multiple offer situations though less contracts due to the inventory levels. We will see as time moves forward I suppose!

To the Update! 

Average Sales Price:

The average price in September  was $465K which was up from last September by  6.4%.   It may look like the pricing is dropping, though it has remained pretty steady since May of 2020 and took off from there.  I am hoping to see some normalizing from that standpoint as we go forward.

Average days on market:  

Our Average Days on Market for a home are at 18 days, which is down 60% from this time frame last September.  I would assume we will see the Day on Market creep up as we head to our traditionally slower season, though I have a good amount of buyer demand so I would assume others do too.

Average months of inventory:

We are still sitting at 1 months of Inventory, which is down 52.4% from last September.  It feels like we were creeping up a few months ago though seem to be staying at this level of inventory.  It could go down as we slide into the Holidays and hopefully ramp it up come Spring...which is what I thought would happen this Spring and everyone, myself included, got wrong.

New listings on market:

 In September we saw 2,159 new listings hit the market, which was down 3.5% from the year before. 
This may be the first true seasonality that we will experience since the Winter of 2019/2020 pre shut down. If we continue to see less listings hit the market we may see less contracts written as the buyer demand still seems to be there, though without listings there are no contracts to be written..

Homes under contract:

September saw 2,078 Homes go pending which was Up  2.9%.    We are still putting almost as many homes under contract as we are putting homes on the market.  Which continues to beg the question, if we had more listings would be experience more contracts?  I think we would as I am working with clients and there is nothing in the areas, price ranges, etc... that they are looking.

Closed Homes:

In September we saw 1,879  Homes go to the Closing table which was DOWN 10.3%%  since last year.   This is a pretty significant drop from a year over year, though last September was again anomaly.  We are still seeing a ton of contracts from month prior though a lot of new construction homes are going under contract, they will not post closed until 6+ months depending on supply chains and build times.

SO what does this all mean!

Well we may have our first real seasonality in almost 2 years. That is good, it is a sign that things are going back to "normal", if you can say 1 month of inventory is normal, though it may be on the right track.

With demand still at a high level, with interest rates down and with inventory low and looking to go lower due to Holidays approaching, we will probably see pricing remain strong. This winter we will see how many people want to move compared to those who HAVE to move as most people put off a move until Spring.

If you have a Real Estate need or question, pleas feel free to reach out as we would love to educate you on the market you may be entering and setting you up for success wether Buying or Selling!

I would love to connect so please as always, reach out with any questions!




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